18/08/2009

Hughes' first year: The numbers

The most obvious place to start when discussing the expenditure during Mark Hughes' first year at the club would be player transfer fees, and even that involves a certain amount of guesswork, with the media often exaggerating figures to sensationalise moves. Us not having the facts and figures at our disposal, taking averages from a variety of sources is probably our best bet.

Discounting the signing of Jo, who i'm sure Hughes would have been keen to give more of a go had he been one of his buys, i estimate we've spent just shy of £200m on incomings since Tal Ben Haim for some reason arrived from Chelsea a year ago. The figure i get to is £197.5m, though we don't know specifics of agreements between clubs, or how deals are set out. Some might be add-on heavy and never see the selling clubs getting the full value, some might be straight 'money upfront' deals, us mere mortals will rarely know.

It's a sensational amount, it can't be denied, but it has bought us pretty much a full side and more. When Hughes arrived from Blackburn we wouldn't have dreamt that within a year he'd have dismantled the squad to such an extent that our strongest eleven would probably only include one senior player at the club last August, and only two or three further players might make our matchday squad when all are fit. It's extraordinary, really. How those players perform for him will decide his fate. Having brought most of them to the club, though, it's probably fair to say the excuses of last season won't be tolerated this, and certainly not beyond.

It's far too early to say whether the players bought are worth the fees paid. In some instances we've probably overpaid a little, but needs must. Perhaps players like Bridge and Bellamy were worth a bit south of £10m than north of it, but we have to accept that in the short-term at least there will be a 'City price' and one for everyone else. How we do over the next season or two will ultimately give us the answer to how astute Hughes has been in the market, but last season's erratic form to one side, i think the players he's brought in have all been good additions.

Such a beefing up of the squad will bring other costs however. Our wage bill is now said to be one of the biggest in the country. We'll never know exactly what players are on, and we needn't do, but it's probably not impossible to fathom ballpark guesses. Without going into details of what we anticipate individual players may take home, i think suggesting that the players who have arrived might've added £1m a week to the wagebill might not be too far wide of the mark, perhaps slightly conservative.

There is, let's not forget, another side to all this. We've not, despite what fans of other clubs and certain elements of the media seem to think, just been randomly amassing a huge pool of players. Nine have left for transfer fees in that time, bringing in around £30m, plus there's still the tribunal fee to be set for Daniel Sturridge, which i expect might fetch in another £3m-£5m.

Another nine senior players have been released or left without fees, but several were significant earners. Four have also left on season-long loan deals. Bearing in mind the alleged salaries of some of those now gone; Bianchi, Corluka, Elano, Hamann, Jo & Bojinov amongst others, i expect somewhere between £550k & £750k a week has been shaven off the wagebill, or almost £34m a year using an average figure.

The net spend then on transfer fees, i guess is around £168m, August to August, just higher than the £156m that Soccerbase says Roman Abramovic spent during his first twelve months at Chelsea. To balance those figures you perhaps have to assess how our squad now compares with the one of last summer. Our on-the-pitch assets would undoubtedly dwarf those at our disposal before the takeover. We'll all have different ideas about how much our players are worth, as will fans of other clubs, but using a high and low figure, high being highest realistic current market value, and lowest being a sort of doomsday scenario firesale, i'd guess our current squad might be worth between £190m and £250m, a huge increase on last year.

It's likely that any period of lavish spending might not last. At Chelsea we've seen a more frugal approach to signings over the last two years. They're in a much better position than us, there's no shame in admitting as much, they've been spending heavily season on season, and could they not still challenge for titles and European Cup's then i anticipate more may have been shelled out. The managerial uncertainty probably hasn't encouraged their owner to get his chequebook out, but there are only so many good players a club can have. Once a strong squad's been put together it will either work or it won't, it has for them, it should hopefully do for us, but the players we've signed look to have been brought in with the medium-term in mind. Performances pending and fingers crossed, we might only need one or two in future summers, so the money spent initially might not be all that staggering.

Time will tell whether the estimated £168m spent on transfers this year, or the £25m+ annual increase in wages will prove money well spent. There are probably all sorts of other things that have warranted huge amounts of money since we were gifted with our new owners. We're probably not the best part of £200m better than we were a year ago, but i'm not sure that's unexpected. Players will take time to settle in and the squad time to be shaped into one the manager ultimately thinks can challenge for honours. I think he may need another year, maybe longer, to even make that next step up. Whatever happens, if we storm to the title (unlikely), scrape 5th (probable), or fall flat on our faces, at least we've got half a chance. Three years ago we were excited about bringing in Hatem Trabelsi on a free, and pipping Bolton Wanderers for the services of ageing German midfielder Didi Hamann.

2 comments:

  1. Good article, I think the biggest factor that splits us from Chelsea though is the fact that every penny that Abromavich has spent whilst being the clubs owner is a DEBT to the club (if he ever pulled out Chelsea would owe every penny back to him) - Our owners on the other hand have written off their spending as a "gift" to the club so we are not in debt to them... Cool:)

    There's a blue moon rising!!!!!

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  2. Well written article thanks. Nice lay-out too, I like the black background

    Why can't we get used to the idea that we can afford a big squad and high wages? If we are to realise ADUG's ambition for us, that's the way things will be for a while.

    It's obvious Hughes has a time-scale in mind that they will have discussed and he's not going to share it with us, all he tells us is "It will take time" . ADUG have set firm targets, apparently, as you can't run a business without a plan for growth and the wage bill and cost of new players will all be in there

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